"Fewer German Nudists as Numbers Dwindle"
Reuters, July 20, 2011
Truth
is indeed often stranger than fiction. The headline above caught my
eye. It turns out that Germany, and particularly the former East
Germany, has a tradition of public nudity that goes back to the early
1900s. Seven million Germans claim to regularly sunbathe in the buff,
and there is even a formal organization-the German Free Body
Culture-that boasts 500,000 registered nudists. Yet it appears that the
era of the German nudist may be drawing to a close.
According to Reuters, "The
naked sunbathers who once crowded Germany's Baltic beaches and city
parks are becoming an endangered species due to shifting demographics,
the fall of the Berlin Wall, growing prosperity and widening girths."
The
number of German nudists is shrinking at a rate of about 2% per year.
But then, the number of all ethnic Germans, regardless of their
propensity to disrobe, is also in decline as Germany has one of the
lowest birthrates in the world. Reuters reports that the number of
Germans has fallen by 3.2 million over the past three decades. The
population of the country has remained roughly constant only due to
large scale immigration from Arab Muslim countries and Turkey-countries
with much less permissive views on public nudity.
Of
course, as Germany shrinks it also ages, which is another factor
affecting the nudist movement. Twenty-something nudists who were
comfortable frolicking about in their birthday suits might be a little
more modest about doing so in middle age, when family and career
concerns tend to force people into more orthodox behavior.
By now you might be wondering: What does this have to do with my investments?
The
truth is, it has everything to do with your investments. Demographics
are the underlying macro force that drives everything from corporate
profits to school enrollments to pension solvency-and yes, German
nudity as well.
As
the American Baby Boomers continue to downsize their spending habits in
preparation for retirement, they will continue to act as a giant brake
on the U.S. economy. Each dollar saved by a Boomer is a dollar not
spent in the economy, which means lower corporate profits and higher
unemployment. This is a major reason why the Great Recession that
started in 2008 has lingered as long as it has and why it will continue
to linger for years to come.
It
is also worth mentioning that one of the key sticking points in the
debt-ceiling negotiations between the House of Representatives and the
President was the insistence among some Republicans on addressing the
looming funding crisis in Social Security and Medicare. The
retirement of the Boomers is going to put enormous strains on these
programs, and while there are opposing views about what should be done
about it, at least the issue is being raised.
Not all demographic news is bad, of course.
Looking at more positive trends, we see that American births are near
all-time highs and that children's clothes and toy stores are full-even
in a recession. The children of the Baby Boomers are now having
children of their own, creating incredible opportunities for those
catering to the needs of new parents.
As
investors, we should always keep the demographic big picture in mind
when allocating our precious capital. There are great opportunities out
there, even in a deep recession. Of course, an investment in a German
nudist resort is not likely to be one of them.