edTelligence Aug Newsletter
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August/Sept 2011  

Letter from the Editor

 

After the recent debt ceiling resolution and resulting market turmoil, no newsletter would be complete without addressing what may lie ahead for federal employees. The question is, of course, what should you be doing with your Thrift Savings Plan? The most important thing is to have a plan. How much are you willing to lose? Right now the market has given back all of the gains of 2011 and is sitting at a small loss. Set a limit from here of what you're willing to lose in percentage terms. Is it another 5%? 10%? More? Less? Simply looking at the S&P 500 index each day can help you manage the C Fund against your pre-determined "stop loss limit." (And as we've mentioned before, the S and I Funds are closely correlated to the C Fund).

 

For those of you who are considering whether to re-allocate, you may also want to re-assess your tolerance for risk. Remember, it's not how much risk you can tolerate; it's how much risk you have to take to accomplish your goals. We recommend that you utilize allocation research from websites such as www.MyTSPVision.com to help you determine your best strategy. These are active money managers who utilize their proprietary approach to provide allocation recommendations on the Thrift Savings Plan.

 

In closing, while the ratings change is a newsworthy event that will be with us for years to come, let us hope that the "silver lining" is greater attention to a longer term solution that will put the United States back on a path to economic prosperity.


 

Cordially,

 

John Sklenar

CPA/PFS, CFP

ChFEBC, Chartered Federal Employee Benefits Consultant

 

In This Issue

1. Alphabet Soup

2. Economics 101

3. Steps to Retirement Planning 

Baseball's All-star Game    

   

The correct answer to last month's quiz was Comisky Park in 1933 - the where and when of the first baseball All-star game.  Congratulations to Lydia Wynes, VA Central, IA, for being the first to respond with the correct answer.  Thanks to all who participated.

Economics 101     

 

"Fewer German Nudists as Numbers Dwindle"
Reuters, July 20, 2011

 

Truth is indeed often stranger than fiction. The headline above caught my eye. It turns out that Germany, and particularly the former East Germany, has a tradition of public nudity that goes back to the early 1900s. Seven million Germans claim to regularly sunbathe in the buff, and there is even a formal organization-the German Free Body Culture-that boasts 500,000 registered nudists. Yet it appears that the era of the German nudist may be drawing to a close.  

 

According to Reuters, "The naked sunbathers who once crowded Germany's Baltic beaches and city parks are becoming an endangered species due to shifting demographics, the fall of the Berlin Wall, growing prosperity and widening girths."

 

The number of German nudists is shrinking at a rate of about 2% per year. But then, the number of all ethnic Germans, regardless of their propensity to disrobe, is also in decline as Germany has one of the lowest birthrates in the world. Reuters reports that the number of Germans has fallen by 3.2 million over the past three decades. The population of the country has remained roughly constant only due to large scale immigration from Arab Muslim countries and Turkey-countries with much less permissive views on public nudity.  

 

Of course, as Germany shrinks it also ages, which is another factor affecting the nudist movement. Twenty-something nudists who were comfortable frolicking about in their birthday suits might be a little more modest about doing so in middle age, when family and career concerns tend to force people into more orthodox behavior.  

 

By now you might be wondering: What does this have to do with my investments?

 

The truth is, it has everything to do with your investments. Demographics are the underlying macro force that drives everything from corporate profits to school enrollments to pension solvency-and yes, German nudity as well.  

 

As the American Baby Boomers continue to downsize their spending habits in preparation for retirement, they will continue to act as a giant brake on the U.S. economy. Each dollar saved by a Boomer is a dollar not spent in the economy, which means lower corporate profits and higher unemployment. This is a major reason why the Great Recession that started in 2008 has lingered as long as it has and why it will continue to linger for years to come.  

 

It is also worth mentioning that one of the key sticking points in the debt-ceiling negotiations between the House of Representatives and the President was the insistence among some Republicans on addressing the looming funding crisis in Social Security and Medicare.   The retirement of the Boomers is going to put enormous strains on these programs, and while there are opposing views about what should be done about it, at least the issue is being raised.

Not all demographic news is bad, of course.

 

Looking at more positive trends, we see that American births are near all-time highs and that children's clothes and toy stores are full-even in a recession. The children of the Baby Boomers are now having children of their own, creating incredible opportunities for those catering to the needs of new parents.  

 

As investors, we should always keep the demographic big picture in mind when allocating our precious capital. There are great opportunities out there, even in a deep recession. Of course, an investment in a German nudist resort is not likely to be one of them.

 

Fast Guy   

 

Marvin Bracy of Boone High School in Orlando, FL, had the fastest 100-meters time (in track and field) for boys in the nation this year. Bracy's time of 10.28 seconds would have won every 100-meter men's Olympic gold medal since 1964 (source: Summer Olympics).  

More Than Half

 

56% of the net worth of Americans is held by the top 10% of US households. Total net worth of Americans was $58 trillion as of 3/31/11 (source: Census Bureau, Federal Reserve). 

Contact Us
202 West 7th St.  
Carroll, IA   51401
 
Email:
phone:
866-792-6668 (toll free)
712-792-6400 (local)
fax: 712-792-6670
 
 

 

 

Alphabet Soup   
 

 

For the past year, OPM has published on their website that Open Season for health insurance (FEHB) will be the month of November starting in 2011. And, I have told each and every class that I've conducted all year to watch for the announcements during October for the November Open Season.

 

Last week, OPM announced the dates for Open Season this year and they are....November 14 through December 12. How crazy am I? Just like federal employees, I can be gullible and believe what I read on the website.

 

At least you don't have to worry about being buried under a mountain of Outlines of Coverage. The FEHB Open Season will be going green this year with all materials being available online.  

 

 

Watch for more information on lunchtime programs we'll be providing during Open Season. If you'd like to bring the brown bag program, "How to Choose the Best Health Plan for You and Your Family" directly into your agency during October or November, feel free to contact our office 303-922-4304. 

Sounds Bigger    

 

The $917 billion of spending cuts over the next decade represents only 2% of the $46.1 trillion that the government is projected to spend over the 10-year period (source: CBO).  

Super Subcommittee 

 

By 8/16/11 Tuesday, a 12-member congressional committee is to be announced that will be responsible for determining additional deficit cuts of $1.5 trillion over the same 10 fiscal years (2012-2021). The committee must deliver its recommendations by 11/23/11 (the day before Thanksgiving). Both the House and the Senate must vote on the committee's proposals without any changes by 12/23/11 (source: Congress).

TSP Returns

 

June wasn't kind to the TSP and July didn't turn out any better. With the debt ceiling vote behind us, there was hope for a rebound before Standard and Poors decided to downgrade U.S. government debt anyway. Compounded by high unemployment rates and housing numbers that are abysmal, is it any wonder investors have begun the retreat to the G Fund?

 

G Fund

July -     .22%
YTD -   1.66%

 

F Fund

July -   1.59%
YTD - 4.39%

 

C Fund

July - (2.04%)
YTD - 3.85%

 

S Fund

July - (3.14%)
YTD - 3.81%

 

I Fund

July - (1.60%)
YTD - 3.59%

 

L Income

July -  (.14%)
YTD - 2.30%

 

L 2020

July - (.94%)
YTD - 3.31%

 

L2030

July - (1.25%)
YTD - 3.60%

 

L 2040

July -(1.49%)
YTD - 3.81%

 

L2050

July - (1.75%)
YTD -

 

Returns provided by www.fedsmith.com 

Fore - and on to Golf    

 

How many major professional golf championships are held in the United States each year and how many of those championships are sponsored by the PGA Tour?

 

Be the first to reply with the correct answer and win a prize!

 

 

Steps to Retirement Planning 

 

John Sklenar to present an Educational Event

I'm excited to share with you a perspective on investing that may change how you view your investments forever!  In order to share this exciting news with my clients as soon as possible, I am hosting an urgent education event you do not want to miss because it could make a huge difference to your financial future!  During our evening we will discuss the following about the traditional investment model plus enjoy a delicious meal:

  • Why market timing doesn't work
  • Why stock picking doesn't work
  • Why an investment's track record means nothing about how well it will do for you
  • The 'big secret' of what's killing the return in your portfolio
  • How you can be a very successful investor without using these speculative methods. 

If you are a market investor and would like to learn how to manage through the turmoil, come spend an evening with us. 

            Tues, Sept 27, 6:00                                              Thurs, Sept 29, 6:00

Holiday Inn Conference Center                                 Santa Maria Winery

2609 University Blvd.                                                218 W. 6th St.

Ames, Iowa                                                              Carroll, Iowa

RSVP NOW - Seating is Limited    Call 866-792-6668  or  792-6400 for reservations. 

If you have friends or family who are also concerned about their financial future, this would be a great opportunity for them to check us out!